I want to share with you a bankroll management tip today that can help you determine your bet sizes the smart way. My last two educational emails about regression to the mean and separating signals vs noises were very well-received so I’ll continue the series today with another powerful lesson. If you missed my previous two lessons, you can read about them below:
- Click here to read my sports betting educational lesson #1: How to Avoid Back-Fitting Data When Handicapping Sports.
- Click here to read my sports betting educational lesson #2: How to Use “Regression to the Mean” to Win When Betting on Sports.
Today is my 3rd sports betting lesson for you: “When is it smart to “double up” on bets?”
Many sports bettors use a strategy to “double up” after a loss as a way to help them recoup a bad beat, and to be in profit if their next wager hits. Let’s say that you made a bet today and it loses. This might influence you to make a bet of twice the size tomorrow as a way to overcome today’s loss. If tomorrow’s bet wins, then you’re in profit!
This betting strategy goes by a few different names, including a Martingale betting, chase betting, or series betting. But does it really work?
The answer is that “doubling up” is a betting strategy can be highly effective in certain conditions. But here’s the problem: Most sports betting are not doing it right. Many sports bettors are recklessly doubling up their wagers on games where outcomes are independent. It’s a recipe for disaster.
The wrong way to use the “doubling up” strategy is to make wagers on games where outcomes have no observable correlation. For example: Let’s say that you like the Astros in baseball today and the Warriors in basketball tomorrow. You place a bet on the Astros today and it ends up losing. Would it be wise then to double up the Warriors tomorrow?
The answer is NO! The above is a classic example of the wrong way to double up a bet size. Here’s why: It’s unwise increase your stakes when two games have independent results to one another. How well the Astros perform tonight will have zero effects on how well the Warriors will play tomorrow. Therefore, to alter your bet sizes based on games where outcomes are completely independent is the wrong way to use a “doubling up” strategy.
Just like when playing a casino games. Take a game of roulette, for example: Whether the wheel lands on black or red on this turn will have no correlating effect on the next turn. Therefore, increasing your bet size on the next turn after a loss will give you no effective value advantage. At the end of the day, the odds favor the house, regardless of your bet sizes.
There are two valid reasons to increase your bet size when betting on sports:
- You have higher confidence level that the next bet has higher winning probability than your previous bet.
Or:
- You have a larger bankroll than you previously did, thus affording you a higher level of risk tolerance.
Here’s the correct way to use a “doubling up” strategy when betting on sports: In sports betting, progressive staking sizes in bankroll management, otherwise known as “chasing,” can increase your expected win value only in cases where outcomes in a sequence of games may be correlated.
For instance: When a sports team loses a game under specific situations, there might be an observed correlating effect on the outcome of their next immediate game. Therefore, a limited chase betting strategy applied under certain conditions can be immensely profitable.
The key here is that you need to use the chase betting strategy only on games where outcomes are likely to have an observed correlating effect at levels that are statistically significant. For example: Whether the Astros win or lose today will have no bearing on how the Warriors will perform tomorrow. Therefore, using a chase strategy in this scenario where games have no correlating results is principally flawed.
However: If the Astros lose today, then will that have a statistically significant effect on their motivation level to come back and win the next day against the same opponent? My meticulous research shows that the answer is a resounding YES – IF certain conditions are met!
A “doubling up” betting strategy has more of a special place in baseball than in other sports due to the fact that games in baseball are played in multi-game series with the same participants. That’s what’s different about baseball in comparison to other sports: The same teams in baseball will play against each others multiple times in either 2-game, 3-game, or even 4-game series before moving on to the next set of opponents.
Unlike the NBA or NHL where teams play against different opponents every new day, the MLB will have teams play against the same opponent in various multi-game series. This opens up a wide window of opportunities to use a “doubling up” betting strategy to zero in on a team that has the best chances of winning at least one time in a series against the same opponent.
If you’re familiar with the Champ MLB betting system, you’ll know that a series-based betting approach involve taking a team on an {A} game at the very start of the series based on certain conditions, and then moving on to the potential {B} wager if the {A} bet does not win. Likewise, we move to the potential {C} wager when the {B} bet does not win. A series ends as soon as you get a winner. Your staking size will vary based on the level of the bet. Your goal is bet enough to win one unit per series. This is otherwise known as a chase betting strategy.
The “doubling up” chase betting strategy has shown to be exceptionally effective when used in conjunction with the Pythagorean Betting System. The reason is simple: Since baseball teams play against the same opponents in series, the results of each game in the series have correlating effects on one another. In other words: A highly undervalued team that loses on the {A} game of a series will very likely see that value increases even further on the {B} game against the same opponent. The same cannot be said about basketball or hockey or football when teams do not play against the same opponent on the next day.
Lately, I’ve switched to this new chase betting method for use with my daily picks based on the Pythagorean Betting System – but only for baseball since games in baseball are played in multi-game series. To put it simply: We use a series-based betting approach with the Pythagorean Betting System only when games are played in a series.
At this time, I believe that this chase betting strategy is likely the best approach to use in baseball for the Pythagorean picks. When a highly undervalued team starts a new series against a highly overvalued opponent, their chances of winning at least once in the series is very high. The value in taking the undervalued team also increases in each step of the series, thus increasing our value in backing them throughout the series, and justifying for the progressive money management system in the chase.
Remember that this chase betting method is only used in baseball, and not in other sports, due to the fact that teams in baseball play against the same opponent in a series. Going forward, I will document the baseball plays based on this chase approach.
The Pythagorean Betting System will help you zero in on the exact teams in the exact situations on the exact games where they’re most likely to correct right off an undervalued period. As a team regresses or progresses to its expected value, you can use a series-based A-B-C Evolution-type betting approach to tail them to win at least once in the series. So far, the winning results using this method is no less than spectacular!
Now that you’ve seen the results, I invite you to give it a try for yourself. Sign up for my daily picks based on the Pythagorean Betting System today, and you can experience the winning results for yourself.
This membership will let you put a series-based betting approach in baseball to work for you and see the results that deliver when coupled with the winning Pythagorean Betting System.
All of my personal picks are based on my brand new Pythagorean Betting System. Every single day, I analyze all of the data points using the Pythagorean Theorem to identify which teams are vastly overvalued or undervalued in all the major sports. If a highly undervalued team is starting a multi-game series against a highly overvalued team, I will alert you about the scenario so you can wager on the undervalued teams. You’ll start with the {A} bet on the first game of the series, and move to a potential {C} bet if necessary. So far, the win rate of this approach is stellar!
Want to follow along and bet on the same picks that I’m taking myself each day? I’ve won tens of millions of dollars from betting on sports over the years. Now, you can follow me and take on the same picks I’m taking through the premium Whale Picks membership. Click here to lock in your VIP access to The Whale Picks.
To your success,
The Sports Betting Whale
