Yesterday was another good day for me where I wagered $38,750 on my picks, and ended up cashing out $44,038.86! I’ll share with you my premium picks today in a bit. But first, I want to take today to explain to you the difference between true patterns and coincidental events when analyzing sports data.
The tendency for us to always look for patterns stems from the belief that it is generally better for us to see a danger that isn’t there, than to miss out on one that is. Heuristics is how humans try to make sense of what’s around us. Predicting the future based on analysis of current patterns is how we’ve historically maximized our chances for survival, and we tend to carry this over when looking into sports data.
Here’s a real life example: Suppose that someone eats a certain type of mushroom and dies. Afterward, another person eats another similar mushroom and also dies. Now, whoever can spot that there is a pattern between mushrooms and death would be the first ones to start avoiding them and end up living. Those who can’t spot the pattern are severely penalized with their lives. Simply put: He who cannot recognize certain patterns are less likely to live. The expert pattern-finders survive and sustain the trait.
The problem is that patterns aren’t always obvious, and our brain can be fooled into believing that patterns can emerge in random events. This is especially true in sports where patterns form consistently, and it’s difficult to tell whether it’s really a true pattern or just a case of coincidence.
I’ll demonstrate it: Let’s take out a coin and flip it 10 times. If heads come up all 10 times in a row, your brain will likely realize a pattern and say: “This has to be a weighted coin!” But, it’s also completely possible that this was a totally fair coin, and you just somehow came into a statistically unlikely sequence of coincidences that led to a false recognition of a non-random pattern.
The problem is that there’s no way for you to tell which is really the case. At best, you can make an assumption. But until you carry out an external test such as weighing the coin yourself, you will never know if that was really a fair coin, or if you just stumbled on a series of coincidences.
Now, if you are to continue flipping the coin, then the certainty of your hypothesis will increase the more times you repeat the experiment. Getting heads (or tails) ten times in a row is a 1 in 1,000 probability occurrence if the coin is fair. Getting 20 in a row is a 1 in a million occurrence. 30 in a row? That’s a one in a billion occurrence.
The outcome of random events will trend toward a random distribution the more times an experiment repeats. The problem is that when you only have a few samples, it’s entirely possible for coincidences to appear as if they might be true patterns. What’s tricky here is that coincidental patterns are oftentimes indistinguishable from true patterns, especially when dealing with smaller sample sizes.
This miscalculation in itself isn’t the worst instinct. A departure from one behavior to another is in some cases a change worth noting. Perhaps someone in the room had secretly switched out your weighted coin with a fair coin while you weren’t looking. There’s really no way to be 100% certain. What’s left is just varying probabilities and expectations based on models built from incomplete data.
So how do we balance it? What’s the best way to ride the line between appropriate skepticism indicating true changes and coincidental sequences? It’s difficult. Here’s where enlisting the help of an expert pattern recognition can truly help you differentiate the true signals from the noises when analyzing trends in sports.
I’m a master at recognizing patterns in sports. I have used this exact ability to help me win tens of millions of dollars from betting on sports over the years. Now, my next mission is to help you share into my success.
And as I continues to get hot, you’re going to see me accelerate harder. Back in the old days when the Mirage sportsbook would take any action I wanted, I wasn’t just betting a million dollars in a month. I was known to bet millions of dollars on just the weekends. I was the largest sports bettor in Nevada and possibly all of the United States at the time, and one of the winningest sports bettors ever.
Now, my next great mission to help you share into my success.