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Today, I’ll teach you about a very important concept called “regression to the mean,” and how you can use it to profit from betting on sports. This strategy is one of the reasons why the Pythagorean Betting System works so marvelously. Science has observed a phenomena in sports known as “regression to the mean.” How it goes is that in any series dependent on multiple variables of chance, extreme outcomes are highly likely to be followed by more moderate ones.
The concept was proven by Nobel prize-winning scientist Daniel Kahneman, who came to a fascinating conclusion: “Whenever the correlation between two scores is imperfect, there will be a regression to the mean.” What this means is that outlier outcomes have a high tendency to eventually revert back to the average. In sports, we use what’s known as the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem to calculate what should be the expected win rate of a sports team based on how many points they’re scoring, and how many points they’re allowing their opponents to score on them. This, in conjunction with a consideration of the team’s strength of schedule, can predict what should be the win-loss record of any sports team with astonishing accuracy. The Pythagorean Betting System will then compare the team’s expected value with their actual current value and determine which teams are vastly overperforming or underperforming. You’ll see it again and again: Teams that are vastly over or underperforming will eventually either regress back or progress up to their expected value. The Pythagorean Betting System will help you identify exactly those teams. This way, you can start tailing the highly undervalued teams while they play against highly overvalued teams. As teams revert to their means, you get to cash out on constant paydays! Let me show you. Imagine a right triangle where each straight side is a representation of how many points a team has scored, and how many points they allow their opponents to score on them. The long side of the triangle represents their win rate. The steeper the slope, the more they are winning:
A completely average team in sports will score approximately as many points as they allow, and they will win 50% of the time. Their results on a right triangle will look exactly like this:
Now, a bad sports team will score little, while allowing opponents to score much more than them. Thus, their win-rate slope will be very slight, gradual incline:
On the other hand, a good sports team will score plenty, while allowing opponents to score much fewer than them. Thus, their win-rate slope will be very steep:
The problem is, not all teams will always show a win-loss record that aligns exactly with their performance on the field. In the real world, you might see something like this:
As you can see, this team above scores large number of points, and is allowing their opponents to score much less. However: Their win-loss record is highly underwhelming, as evident by the slope.
Here’s the exact occasion where the Pythagorean Betting System would identify that team as highly undervalued. All you have to do is now wager on such a team while they play against a highly overvalued team. Time and time again, you’ll see that outlier outcomes have a high tendency to eventually revert back to the average, as proven by the concept of “regression to the mean.” As the team’s record reverts to what it should be based on their performance on the field, you get to cash out all along on the ride because you’re tailing them with your wagers all along:
What you’re seeing above is an illustration of what is known as a “market correction.”
This holds the key to profiting from any high return investments. For example:
The key to making money in ANY type of high return investment is to buy into an asset at a time when it’s undervalued, so that you can cash in on it once the market corrects.
Want to profit from betting on sports? Wager on teams that are undervalued, and over time you’ll win more often than you lose as the market corrects.
The drawing right above is an exact illustration of what happens during a market correction in sports, made possible by teams’ tendency to “regress to the mean.” A team that is performing very well on the field but has a poor showing on their actual record is highly likely to eventually progress up to their expected value. As a sports bettor, you will profit a great deal of winnings by riding that team during the market correction period.
Just like the stock market: You get in on an asset while it’s highly undervalued, and you profit from it during and after market correction! Here’s how that would have played out if you had applied this concept toward Amazon stock over the last quarter:
See? Profiting in any high return investment vehicle is as simple as buying into when it’s undervalued, and profit from it as the market corrects.
The Pythagorean Betting System will help you zero in on the exact teams in the exact situations on the exact games where they’re most likely to correct right off an undervalued period. As a team regresses or progresses to its expected value, you get to win – all throughout the ride!
Check it out at: http://PythagoreanSystem.
All the best,
The Champ Team |
How to Use “Regression to the Mean” to Win When Betting on Sports
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